State of Security Report | Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Explore the intelligence from Recorded Future's Insikt Group annual threat landscape analysis: the definitive report on how geopolitical fragmentation, state-sponsored operations, and criminal ecosystem evolution are reshaping global risk. Download report Fragmentation is the new normal The global threat landscape didn't simplify in 2025—it shattered.
Geopolitical alliances strained. Criminal enterprises splintered and regrouped. State-sponsored actors shifted from dramatic disruptions to quiet pre-positioning. And as long-established norms unwound, convergence across once-distinct domains created unprecedented uncertainty. The 2026 State of Security report delivers Insikt Group's most comprehensive annual analysis of the forces shaping global security—helping leaders reduce surprise, prioritize effectively, and act with confidence. 2025: A year of fragmentation Geopolitical tensions dominate Russia-Ukraine War Enters Fourth Year | Geopolitical India-Pakistan Ballistic Missile Exchanges | Geopolitical US-Brokered Ceasefire Prevents Escalation | Geopolitical State-sponsored attacks Israel-Iran Twelve-Day Conflict | Geopolitical RedMike Campaign Targets Telecom Infrastructure | State-Sponsored Chinese Actors Exploit Unpatched Cisco Devices Across 100+ Countries | State-Sponsored Geopolitical threats and deepfakes Thailand-Cambodia Border Clashes | Geopolitical Russian GRU Operations Intensify Against NATO Infrastructure | State-Sponsored Deepfake-Enabled Fraud Increases 10x Since 2024 | Emerging Technology Cybercrime leads 289 New Ransomware Variants Identified (33% YoY Increase) | Cybercrime Synthetic Identity Fraud Up 300% | Emerging Technology Law Enforcement Disruptions Fragment Criminal Ecosystems | Cybercrime https://main--2025recordedfuturewebsite--recorded-future-website.aem.page/research/state-of-security-metrics.json The converging threat landscape State-sponsored operations Risk moves to the edges China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea focused not on dramatic attacks but on covert accumulation of access—targeting identity systems, cloud environments, and edge infrastructure where oversight is weakest.
The primary risk is no longer a single large-scale incident. It's sustained pre-positioning that enables persistent espionage and creates latent capacity for disruption. Key Insight: Warning timelines are compressing. The adversaries are already inside. Hacktivism & influence operations Convergence across domains Every major conflict in 2025 had a digital front—and the combatants weren't always who they claimed to be.
Genuine intrusions, exaggerated claims, and disinformation reinforced one another across Israel-Iran, India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Perception is now contested terrain. Even low-sophistication attacks generate outsized impact when amplified through coordinated information operations. Cybercrime evolution Fragmented, modular, resilient Law enforcement achieved significant wins in 2025.
But the criminal ecosystem adapted. Sustained pressure fractured large enterprises into smaller, decentralized operations. Groups adopted subscription models, outsourced operations, and relied on specialized services—creating a distributed criminal supply chain that's resilient and difficult to track. Threat actors are adapting faster than defenses. Modular ecosystems mean even disrupted operations reconstitute rapidly.
Emerging technology risk Verification failure at scale 2025 was not a breakout year for AI-driven cyber operations. But the immediate risk isn't autonomous attacks—it's verification failure at scale, where deception becomes faster, cheaper, and more convincing. As AI becomes empowered to take real-world actions through autonomous agents, the attack surface for fraud and manipulation will expand dramatically.
Organizations that act now to establish AI governance and prepare for post-quantum migration will hold significant advantages. Style Bg-color-grey-100, bg-rd-radius-tr, bg-rd-radius-tl What 2025 teaches us about 2026 The patterns of 2025 point toward a threat environment defined by sustained uncertainty. Security leaders should prepare for: https://main--2025recordedfuturewebsite--recorded-future-website.aem.page/data/research/state-of-security-features.json bg-color-blue-50 Download the full report The 2026 State of Security report provides comprehensive analysis of each threat domain, threat actor profiles, regional risk assessments, and actionable recommendations for building organizational resilience.
Intelligence doesn't eliminate uncertainty—it makes uncertainty manageable. Get the insights you need to reduce surprise, prioritize effectively, and act with confidence. The 2026 State of Security report was produced by Recorded Future's Insikt Group, comprising analysts and security researchers with deep government, law enforcement, military, and intelligence agency experience. section get-in-touch-left-panel formId mktoForm_1472 Related Resources View All Resources